A new statistical model predicts lung cancer mortality rates in smokers and former smokers, without prior screening. Utilizing data from the Carotene and Reinol Efficacy Trial (CARET), researchers from New York, NY, Milan, Italy, and Lyon, France, developed a formula to predict lung cancer mortality in 8,825 subjects, based on each subject's risk factors for lung cancer mortality, such as age and smoking history.

To verify the model's accuracy, researchers tested the model on three study cohorts, separately and combined. When combined, the model predicted 308 deaths due to lung cancer, and 319 deaths were actually observed.

This model would essentially allow study subjects to serve as their own control group, because researchers would be able to compare the actual lung cancer mortality rates of subjects who received screening or preventative information to what their mortality rate would have been without the procedures.

The study appears in the December issue of CHEST, the peer-reviewed journal of the American College of Chest Physicians.

Contact: Jennifer Stawarz
jstawarzchestnet
847-498-8306
American College of Chest Physicians